Hongkong before the date of the publication entitled "if Trump announced a trade war, China win" the article said that the Trump administration is to take office, around and Chinese unfair trade and trade war threats have a lot to say. If this attitude becomes a reality, the United States will be disastrous. This means that the profits of U.S. companies will be severely reduced, and the world must choose to do business with China or to support the United States politically. The indirect impact of slower growth in China will also have devastating consequences for its trading partners. In the end, Beijing will be forced to speed up the implementation of its domestic consumption and adjust the inefficient industrial structure strategy.
The article said that, in general, the trade war will only accelerate China to become the world's largest economy.
Any bilateral trade war will lead to a strong boycott of U.S. companies. Because of decades of outsourcing in manufacturing, it will take a generation of people to return to their jobs. High tariffs will lead to companies such as WAL-MART lose their competitive advantage and lower profit expectations. If you rely on Chinese stocks to encounter similar situations, people will soon see the Domino effect, such as negative expectations and massive sell-off. Many of the shareholders who are not satisfied with the influence, will certainly make the Trump administration pay a high price for this attitude.
From a broader perspective, a trade war would break the natural order of globalization. Sooner or later, the world will have to decide whether to do business with China or to support the United States politically. China is the largest trading partner of more than and 100 countries and regions, many of which have to bear the responsibility of a single source of trade". This means that China has a huge influence in the world, can have a serious impact on many economies.
The article said that in view of the global economy is still unstable, trade dependent countries will have to make difficult choices. History has proved that China's capital is very popular, because even in the face of protests in the United States, many western countries are still competing to become a member of the Beijing led Asian infrastructure investment bank. Trade war will make many countries question the U.S. foreign policy, and China will use its own best way to use their economic strength.
On the other hand, a trade war with the United States will certainly affect China's growth. However, China's huge trade surplus will be used to block growth. Think about the economic stimulus package China launched during the global financial crisis in 2008, and its rapid decision-making process and the huge sums of money earmarked for it have played a key role in overcoming the economic downturn.
Today, the strategic alliance of Chinese and Belt and Road Initiative "program is designed to develop new markets, to digest excess capacity through massive stimulus spending. Moreover, the secondary effect of China's slowing growth will cause a slowdown in its more than and 100 trading partners. This will complicate the problem of global growth. The last point is that the trade war and growth slowdown are conducive to Beijing to speed up the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic consumption. This is a major plan for the Communist Party, with a focus on turning on its own.
The article said that in view of the command and control strategy in Beijing, plus the purchase of consumer goods seized "China manufacturing" nationalism initiative, a trade war would be a very powerful promotion factor.
Slower growth will also provide ammunition for the government to adjust the industrial structure. State owned enterprises must be the main target.
Therefore, although the outbreak of trade war with the United States will have a significant impact on China, but its historical, economic and political structure is better than the United States to respond to this impact. The consequences of a trade war will not only hurt the U.S. economy, but also are likely to cause irreparable damage to its global position in Western partners. With international relations in the new era, it will force China to adjust its domestic economic structure in order to accelerate the world's largest economy.